IRAN: The Coming Conflict

The UN Security Council has told Iran to halt uranium enrichment by the 21st of February or face the possibility of economic sanctions. However Iran has said that it has no intentions of giving into pressure from the international community.

This week the BBC revealed details of a US contingency plan to attack Iran should sanctions and diplomatic efforts fail. The BBC report claims that "US contingency plans for air strikes on Iran extend beyond nuclear sites and include most of the country's military infrastructure... It is understood that any such attack - if ordered - would target Iranian air bases, naval bases, missile facilities and command-and-control centers."

The plan for attack makes reference to two possible "triggers" that could prompt the use of military force against Iran The first would be "confirmation that Iran was developing a nuclear weapon," although what exactly constitutes confirmation is unclear. The second trigger would be Iranian involvement in "a high-casualty attack on US forces in neighboring Iraq."

On Monday a US congressional delegation arrived in Israel to discuss the problem of Iran. According to Yuval Steinitz, a member of the Israeli Knesset who met with the delegation, "Everyone expressed an unequivocal stance that Iran must not be allowed to be a nuclear country, and to have nuclear weapons. There is some hope that if Europe works with the US to achieve economic sanctions, and a blockade on Tehran, then Iran may agree to halts its program, like North Korea. If not, it's pretty clear that the military solution is on the table."

Iran's nuclear program has long been the subject of debate. It is viewed by most as one of the greatest threats to international security. Yet some have condemned efforts to stem Iran's nuclear ambitions as hypocritical. One such commentator wrote, "The US government cannot make a reasonable case as to why it's OK for Israel to have a stockpile of nuclear warheads but it's not OK for any other nation in the Middle East to pursue nuclear weapons technology." However such cursory remarks do not take into account some of the key dynamics behind the Middle East conflict.

A Growing Threat

Iran is governed by Shiite Muslim clerics committed to a stern interpretation of Islamic law. Hatred of the United States has been a key component of Iranian foreign policy since the 1978 Islamic revolution, and Iran's leaders often refer to the United States as the "Great Satan." Iran's distaste for the United States is surpassed only by their utter loathing of Israel. Iran's political and religious leaders have repeatedly called for Israel's complete destruction.

The State Department calls the Islamic Republic of Iran the world's "most active state sponsor of terrorism." Iran continues to provide funding, weapons, training, and sanctuary to numerous terrorist groups based in the Middle East and elsewhere. Iran mostly backs Islamist groups, including the Lebanese Shiite militants of Hezbollah (which Iran helped found in the 1980s) and such Palestinian terrorist groups as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Iran uses such groups to carry out a proxy war on Israel and the West. It is therefore folly to allow Iran, and consequently its terrorist allies, to obtain nuclear technology.

The Worst-Kept Secret in the Middle East

Unlike Iran, Israel is not a signatory of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and, as such, technically does not have to abide by nuclear anti-proliferation conventions. Over the past five decades Israel has developed a nuclear-weapons program but has neither denied nor admitted the existence of its nuclear arsenal. Israelis call this policy "strategic ambiguity." Israel is surrounded on all sides by enemies bent on bringing about its destruction. Israel, therefore, developed its nuclear program to serve as a deterrent. Israel's nuclear arsenal is one of the primary reason nations like Iran have not yet succeeded in their plans to wipe Israel "off the map."

Israel is perhaps one of the most controversial members of the nuclear club. Israel's officially unacknowledged nuclear arsenal has been described as "the worst-kept secret in the Middle East." Reports indicate that Israel possesses a little over 100 nuclear missiles. It has never officially conducted a nuclear test, however some suspect that such a test may have occurred in 1979 off the coast of South Africa.

On September 22, 1979 a US satellite detected a massive explosion over the Indian Ocean. The explosion is known as the Vela Incident. Most of the information about the incident is still classified, and there are many different conjectures about who may be responsible for the blast. However the most popular theory is that Israel, which almost certainly had nuclear weapons in 1979, conducted a nuclear test with the assistance of South Africa. South Africa also had a nuclear weapons program at the time, before the fall of the apartheid, and the geographic location of the tests points to their involvement.

Iran is heading steadily toward a confrontation with Israel. There has long been speculation that Israel is preparing for a possible attack on Iran's nuclear facilities - there has even been evidence to suggest that Israel may be planning a tactical nuclear strike.

Iran center of US-Israeli talks - YNet

Israel beating Iran in arms race - JTA

US 'Iran attack plans' revealed - BBC

US, Israel agree on Iran policy - Jerusalem Post

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